A Senate bill could make AI data centers pay an estimated $35 billion more for the grid over a decade

AI data center builders may soon face a new federal bill for the power lines they plug into. On Monday the US Senate voted 73-25 to open debate on a sweeping energy permitting bill. One section would make data centers pay for both the existing grid and the new equipment built to serve them.

That section may be what saves the bill, Joseph Majkut of the CSIS think tank told Reuters. One estimate, from consultancy Grid Strategies, puts data centers' transmission charges at about $55 billion over a decade. That is roughly $35 billion more than they would pay under current federal policy.

For investors, the number matters less than the direction. Grid costs for big computing sites would be set more by federal rules and less by case-by-case local deals. But the bill's chances of becoming law before Congress ends on January 3 are still roughly one in four, analysts say.

What data center builders would pay

Today, under a 1994 federal pricing rule, a new grid customer pays either its share of the existing network or the cost of the expansion it triggers, whichever is higher. Not both.

The bill, called the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, would end that choice for data centers. They would pay the published rate for the existing grid plus the extra costs they cause. Sites that accept power that can be cut during shortages would get a lower rate.

A separate "ratepayer protection" clause goes further. Data centers would cover the full added cost of power plants, storage and local wires built for them. They would post financial guarantees and stay liable for those costs if they leave early.

States would gain new tools as well. They could put data centers in their own customer class and charge them more than cost, using the surplus to lower other customers' bills. They could also hold competitions for grid access or require new sites to bring their own power.

An earlier draft applied the strictest rules only to sites using 20 megawatts or more. A revised version released on November 7 dropped that size limit, according to law firm White & Case. The deadline for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the federal grid regulator, to issue the new pricing policy is unsettled in public analyses: 90 days after enactment in White & Case's reading of the revised text, and 270 days in a count by law firm Foley Hoag cited by Tech Times.

Supporters say households win. Rhodium Group projects residential bills $50 to $78 a year lower by 2040, based on the bill as first introduced. Senator Martin Heinrich, a lead author, cites unnamed independent analyses finding about $19 billion in household savings over 14 years. These are projections that depend on years of follow-up rulemaking.

Who is backing it, and who isn't

Big tech's position is mixed. Two corporate energy buyer groups whose members include Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft endorse the bill, Latitude Media reported. Amazon, Google and Meta did not respond to Latitude's requests for comment, and Microsoft declined to comment.

The Data Center Coalition, the main industry trade group, has not endorsed it and says it is still reviewing. Some utilities are more supportive. The trade groups for public power and rural electric cooperatives jointly endorsed the bill, Tech Times reported. Its upfront guarantees would cut utilities' risk of building for demand that never shows up.

The risk for builders runs two ways. Jeff Dennis of the Electricity Customer Alliance warned that the final bill must not push data centers to build off the grid, Tech Times reported. Tyler Ochs, a lawyer at Ice Miller, told Bisnow that smaller developers and newer entrants could be on shaky ground.

Environmental groups see the opposite problem. Oil Change International called the bill a "massive giveaway to the data center industry," Time reported. Critics say faster permits for gas pipelines would speed up gas-powered campuses. Gas projects in development to power US data centers reached about 189 gigawatts by mid-2026, per Global Energy Monitor data cited by Time.

Why the odds are still long

Monday's vote only opened debate. The bill still faces another 60-vote procedural hurdle, and White & Case expects a final Senate vote the week of November 16. Some Democrats who voted yes, including Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, are demanding floor changes to preserve tribal reviews of historic and sacred sites, The Center Square reported.

The House is a bigger hurdle. Hakeem Jeffries, expected to become speaker in January, says the bill "falls short in several areas." The House passed its own permitting bill, the SPEED Act, in December 2025, and the two versions would have to be reconciled.

President Trump called the bill a big win, then said it was not fully negotiated and that he would not approve wind turbines. TD Cowen puts passage odds at 25%, down from 40% before the election, Reuters reported. Rapidan Energy Group puts them at 20% to 25%, down from 30%.

If the bill dies, it does not carry over. Democrats take control of both houses of Congress in January and are expected to introduce their own bills targeting AI and data center development. Meanwhile local limits keep spreading. Boise, Idaho, and Romulus, Michigan, adopted pauses on new data centers on Tuesday, and Oklahoma City extended its moratorium on large data centers through 2027.

For companies planning sites, the choice may be between one federal price list now and a patchwork of local rules later. Some in the industry may decide the first option is cheaper.