Anthropic's IPO buyers want a lower price, and OpenAI just accepted one

The AI stock selloff has reached the two most valuable private AI companies. On Friday, Nov. 6, Bloomberg reported that prospective buyers of Anthropic's initial public offering are discussing a valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. Some are weighing as little as $1.1 trillion. Earlier, investors had told the company's bankers they saw fair value at around $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion.

The same day, OpenAI closed the first $11 billion of a new funding round at a $1.25 trillion valuation, Reuters and Bloomberg reported. Two investors told Reuters that OpenAI had initially sought $1.5 trillion.

Anthropic's listing would put the first public price on a frontier AI lab, one of the handful of companies building the most advanced models. Where it lands will shape how venture funds, sovereign investors and employees value their AI holdings. A lower price also means Anthropic gives up more ownership for every dollar it raises, while it carries close to $900 billion in computing and lease commitments.

How far expectations have fallen

In early October, some investors floated $2 trillion, Bloomberg reported. Expectations settled at $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion after a company briefing on its results later that month. Talks are ongoing and no terms are set, Bloomberg reported. Anthropic declined to comment.

The Wall Street Journal reported that three major investors planning to buy shares said the valuation will likely need to come down. One said it could approach $1 trillion. One investor raised the idea of a delay, and a smaller offering is under consideration, the Journal reported. It said Anthropic had aimed to raise up to $100 billion around the week of Nov. 16, which would top the $86 billion SpaceX raised in June.

If all $100 billion were new shares, and the valuation includes that new cash, selling at $1.1 trillion would hand buyers about 9% of the company, versus under 7% at $1.5 trillion, by machine.net's calculation. Part of any offering may come from existing shareholders selling, which would change that math.

Timing is also in doubt. Reuters, citing four people familiar with investor talks, reported that potential buyers doubt Anthropic can hold its roadshow, the round of investor meetings before pricing, next week and still list in November. Odds of a listing before Dec. 1 on the betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi fell from roughly 80% to near 50%, Yahoo Finance reported.

Even the low end of the new range sits above the $965 billion valuation from Anthropic's $65 billion private funding round in May. Those buyers would still be ahead. But at $1.1 trillion, their gain shrinks to about 14%, by machine.net's calculation.

What the filing shows buyers

The market slump is not the only issue. Anthropic's amended filing, released Nov. 2, showed third-quarter revenue of $16.96 billion, up 47% from the second quarter's $11.6 billion. That is fast, but second-quarter revenue had grown 144% from the first. Anthropic left October revenue blank, and investors want that figure to judge whether growth has picked back up, Reuters reported.

Profit moved the wrong way. Under standard accounting rules, Anthropic posted a $567 million operating loss in the third quarter, after $974 million of operating income in the second. Its own adjusted measure, which strips out some costs, showed $2.5 billion of operating income. The adjusted margin still slipped to 15% from 19%.

Computing and infrastructure costs rose 382% from a year earlier to $9.86 billion. Anthropic bought $5 billion of computing on short-term deals that it says cost significantly more than its multi-year contracts. Its purchase and lease commitments total about $895.4 billion, with about $69.8 billion due in the 12 months after Sept. 30.

At $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, buyers would pay roughly 16 to 19 times Anthropic's third-quarter revenue on an annualized basis of about $68 billion, by machine.net's calculation.

OpenAI's round shows where private money stands

OpenAI's round has shrunk in stages. In late September, Bloomberg reported it was seeking at least $30 billion at about $1.4 trillion. The target was later cut to about $20 billion. SoftBank and MGX, a state-backed Abu Dhabi fund, took part in the $11 billion first close, Reuters reported. Bloomberg said the rest is expected in the coming weeks.

The new price is still about 47% above OpenAI's $852 billion valuation from March. It equals about 25 times OpenAI's September annualized revenue of roughly $50 billion, a figure Bloomberg reported. The two companies' multiples are not like-for-like. Bloomberg has reported that Anthropic counts the gross value of some sales made through cloud partners, while OpenAI books only its share.

OpenAI has pushed its own listing to early 2027, Yahoo Finance reported. PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes said it holds "a free option" to watch how institutions receive Anthropic before setting its own price, Tech Funding News reported. A cheap Anthropic listing would make that option less pleasant to exercise.

Not everyone expects a collapse. Rick Meckler of Cherry Lane Investments told Reuters the companies are "going to become public," though private valuations will probably see some pullback. Truist's Keith Lerner was blunter, describing "something of a buyers' strike in tech."

The next concrete signal is a filing that sets Anthropic's price range. None had appeared as of Nov. 5, FinanceFeeds reported. If it arrives below $1.5 trillion, the reset in AI valuations will be official rather than reported.